The London councils where Labour could lose control

Dear Londoners — we’re motoring into the last third of July and starting to wonder where all our time has gone. Much of it, of course, has been devoted to bringing you editions like the one that follows. Today we’re looking even further ahead, to next May’s local elections, spurred on by a Politics Home report which suggests Labour could face strong challenges to its longstanding iron grip of London. Read on for The Londoner’s analysis, plus intel on the battle taking place of Square Mile’s skyline, popstar weddings, and the boozer favoured by one of the capital’s most famous 20th century activist groups.

Big story: Are Labour at risk of losing London?

Topline: The capital has long been an almost unassailable stronghold for Labour, with the vast majority of its councils and 59 of its 75 parliamentary seats controlled by the party. But now Labour faces a war on “five fronts”, reports Politics Home, which could see it lose control of London’s councils at local elections next year. 

Background: Since winning a landslide victory last year, the Labour Party has seen public support across the country nosedive, and a raft of new political challengers emerged. In essence, the problem isn’t that a majority of the city will suddenly become Conservative voters, but that Labour’s base in the capital is set to fragment across a wide array of different parties. So who are the challengers? What councils are they targeting? And how might the city look this time next year?

The Greens: The Greens — or at least some of their leaders —  are looking to win over disaffected voters from Labour’s now estranged left flank. They’re targeting wards that are more likely to move to the radical left than the far-right — places like Lewisham and Hackney that have been run as defactor one-party states for years by Labour. In Lewisham, there’s been two recent councillor defections from Labour to the Greens and growing dissatisfaction among local Labour activists and voters, who are reportedly quitting en-masse or refusing to campaign. Over the river, in Hackney, the Greens already have a strong council presence, as well as Green candidates finishing second in both Hackney’s parliamentary seats at last year’s general election. The Green strategy, however, could be impeded if a much-discussed new left-wing party, fronted by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, comes to fruition.

Liberal Democrats: The centrist party already runs three councils in London’s middle-class south-western suburbs: Richmond, Sutton and Kingston, and no doubt think neighbouring areas with a similar profile (like Merton) could fall their way if dissatisfaction with Labour continues. The Londoner understands one of their more ambitious targets is Southwark, where for several years in the 2000s the Liberal Democrats were the largest party, with an MP to boot. Just a few weeks ago, the local Labour branch’ attempt to elect a new council leader devolved into chaos after the national party’s high command ordered a re-run of the election following the victory of James McAsh, a left-leaning challenger.

Gaza Independents: A story mostly missed on election night last year was just how close some senior Labour figures came to losing out to independent candidates campaigning on a pro-Gaza platform. Health Secretary Wes Streeting survived by just 528 votes in the normally dyed-red seat of Ilford North, for example and Andrew Feinstein came second to Keir Starmer in Islington, with Starmer’s vote share reduced by 17.3%. After the resignation of Jas Athwal as a councillor in March — a long-time subject of investigations by this very outlet — his Mayfield seat was won by one such pro-Gaza independent. Will the increasing crackdown on pro-Palestine sentiment provide a further boost to such campaigns next year?

Reform: Despite being ascendant in national polls, Reform is still an unpopular prospect in the capital. But there are still a small number of areas where it’s suspected Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing party could make in-roads. One of them is likely to be the Barking Council, where Reform candidates did surprisingly well in the general election. It’s an area that has a long history of far-right support; in 2006, it elected 12 councillors from the far-right BNP. 

Tories: Somewhat optimistically, despite polling suggesting they have the support of around 15% of Londoners, Conservative sources told Politics Home they are gunning to reclaim Wandsworth Council, run by the party for decades before being won by Labour in 2022. Maybe a more pressing question would be whether the party can hold onto its own councils, in Croydon, Bromley, Harrow, Bexley and Hillingdon, which could all face a right-wing challenge from Reform.

Your news briefing

💩 The environment secretary has rejected an appeal from Thames Water to waive hundreds of millions in fines, as the company teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. Steve Reed has insisted the firm will get no “special treatment,” reports The Times, after hearing testimony from Thames Water’s chief executive that the company was likely to enter administration if forced to pay a £122.7mn sanction, announced by water regulator Ofwat in May. The penalty was incurred after Ofwat found Thames Water had breached rules around sewage disposal and shareholder payouts. 

🎶 Newly anointed pop superstar Charli XCX had a very Hackney wedding this weekend. First, she and husband George Daniel caused a stir when they were spotted posing on the steps of the borough’s town hall, having just tied the knot inside, like so many of their 30-something peers. Then the happy couple headed off to local Italian restaurant, Dalla, for a reception, before taking the party to Ellie’s, a Kingsland Road bar. Souvenirs from the day are now being snapped up by eager locals; one blogger has even made a video reviewing “the remains of Charli XCX’s wedding cake” (purportedly crafted by Violet’s Bakery, a Dalston go-to for the fashion crowd) after being gifted it by a pal who works in Dalla. Hackney council must be kicking their feet with glee at such free publicity. 

🚨 Fifty-five people were arrested in central London on Saturday, for holding placards in support of protest group Palestine Action. The demonstration was one of a number held around the UK, after the Labour government decided to proscribe the direction action collective as a ‘terrorist group’ earlier this month. The move has caused mass controversy, with critics — including leading human rights organisations like Amnesty International — warning that it could have a “severe impact” on free speech rights for the wider Palestine movement. This weekend’s rally was the third in as many weeks; attendees proferred signs reading “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action” before many were “hauled away,” according to The Independent.

Got a story for us to look into? Please get in touch.

If you missed it

• On Saturday, Andrew took a trip to New Providence Wharf, a luxury block near Canary Wharf, where residents pay thousands annually for services including a pool, gym and valets. But three serious fires in four years have changed life in the luxury block and left homeowners struggling to sell apartments formerly valued at millions. Read the investigation here.
• In Wednesday’s culture edition, Hannah dug into why a raft of media and cultural figures have lasered in on Tate Britain’s supposed ‘wokeness’. Have your say, here.

Wining and dining

With endless offerings and non-stop openings, we all know that deciding where to eat and drink in the capital can be fraught. We want to make it easy — so every week we’ll give you our insider guide to the city’s best spots. 

One perfect meal: Walk a few yards past the oppressive queue clogging up the pavement outside Dim Sum Duck in King’s Cross and you’ll come to an unassuming little Vietnamese spot. But Sen Viet’s banh mis are up there with the best while its Shaking Beef Salad is an overlooked highlight. Next time you’re heading for a train, bake in an extra hour to stop by here for lunch first. 

One perfect drink: It’s that inevitable, unavoidable time of year again. Like salmon driven back to their spawning grounds, it’s sunny and the siren call of a streetside pint is calling. You could trap yourself on a Soho side street surrounded by shambling, gormless American tourists and pedicabs blaring Noughties Kesha hits, but if you actually want a good time, go to King Charles I, also in King’s Cross. The Caledonian Road-adjacent boozer, is beautiful, wood-panelled, filled with bric-a-brac and serves amazing beer, but is regrettably pint sized — something that’s less of a problem when the sun lets you spill into the street anyway. It’s also the go-to haunt of the surviving members of Lesbians and Gays Support the Miners (LGSM), the group lovingly remembered in 2014’s cult classic film, Pride.

Our favourite reads

The sky-high battle over the City of London’s next skyscrapers — Andy Silvester, The Times (£)

The Square Mile is now a battleground as the City of London Corporation goes head-to-head with Historic England over the future of the area’s skyline. The CoLC wants it to be towering and glass-fronted, to boost its status as a financial district. Historic England isn’t on board. 

Mind Invaders — Thomas Peermohamed Lambert, The Fence. 

The Fence documented the insane story of the London Psychogeographical Association, a Noughties cell of “art terrorists”, that would fake kidnappings, host three-sided football matches and anything else it could think of to fill an increasingly homogenous city with absurdity.

To Do List

🎭 With schools finally breaking up for the summer, the race to find activities to preoccupy the kids is on. All the family will get something from this adaptation of Malorie Blackman’s landmark children’s novel, Noughties and Crosses, currently being staged by Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre. Its run finishes on 26 July, with tickets from £19. 

💄 Somerset House’s new exhibition ‘Virtual Beauty’, opens this week. Focusing on — you guessed it — the intersection of technology and beauty, there’s work exploring the influence of social media, AI and digital identities, including one exhibiting artist who livestreamed her own facial aesthetic surgery. From 23 July, pay what you can. 

🌹 For a dedicated cohort of a particularly romantic persuasion, the question of whether Queen Victoria did or did not have a passionate affair with her ‘companion’, John Brown, is a fixation. Launching her new book regarding their relationship, historian Dr Fern Riddell gives her take at the British Library on 24 July, in conversation with journalist Matthew Sweet. From 7pm, tickets £12.